U.S. expects reduced tempo in Ukraine fighting to continue for months

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Ukrainian tankers close to an undisclosed entrance line place in jap Ukraine on Nov. 28, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Yevhen Titov | Afp | Getty Photos

U.S. intelligence expects the lowered tempo in combating in Ukraine to proceed within the subsequent a number of months and sees no proof of a lowered Ukrainian will to withstand, regardless of assaults on its energy grid and different vital winter infrastructure, the Director of Nationwide Intelligence stated on Saturday.

“We’re seeing a form of a lowered tempo already of the battle … and we anticipate that is prone to be what we see within the coming months,” Avril Haines informed the annual Reagan Nationwide Protection Discussion board in California.

She stated each the Ukrainian and Russian militaries can be trying to attempt to refit and resupply to organize for a counter-offensive after the winter, however there was a query as to what that might seem like, and added: “We even have a good quantity of skepticism as as to whether or not the Russians might be in actual fact ready to try this. I believe extra optimistically for the Ukrainians in that timeframe.”

Requested concerning the results of Russian assaults on Ukraine’s energy grid and different civilian infrastructure, Haines stated Moscow’s goal was partly to undermine the desire of Ukrainians to withstand, and added: “I believe we’re not seeing any proof of that being undermined proper now at this level.”

She stated Russia was additionally trying to have an effect on Ukraine’s capability to prosecute battle and added that Kyiv’s economic system had been struggling very badly.

“It may over time, clearly, have an effect. How a lot of an influence might be depending on how a lot they go after, what they’re able to doing, the resilience of that vital infrastructure, our capability to assist them defend it.”

“Ukraine’s economic system is struggling very badly. It has been devastating, and … clearly taking down the grid will have an effect on that as effectively.”

Haines stated she thought Russian President Vladimir Putin had been shocked that his army had not completed extra.

“I do assume he’s changing into extra knowledgeable of the challenges that the army faces in Russia. But it surely’s nonetheless not clear to us that he has a full image at this stage of simply how challenged they’re … we see shortages of ammunition, for morale, provide points, logistics, an entire sequence of considerations that they are dealing with.”

Haines stated Putin’s political aims in Ukraine didn’t seem to have modified, however U.S. intelligence analysts thought he could also be keen to cut back his near-term army aims “on a brief foundation with the concept that he would possibly then come again at this problem at a later time.”

She stated Russia gave the impression to be utilizing up its army stockpiles “fairly shortly.”

“It is actually fairly extraordinary, and our personal sense is that they don’t seem to be able to indigenously producing what they’re expending at this stage,” she stated.

“That is why you see them going to different nations successfully to attempt to get ammunition … and we have indicated that their precision munitions are operating out a lot quicker in lots of respects.”

Haines stated the USA had “seen some motion” in provides of munitions from North Korea, “nevertheless it’s not been rather a lot at this stage.”

She stated Iran had provided Russia with drones and Moscow was on the lookout for different forms of precision munitions from Tehran, one thing that might be “very regarding by way of their capability.”



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